Welcome!

SDN Journal Authors: Elizabeth White, Yeshim Deniz, Liz McMillan, Pat Romanski, TJ Randall

Related Topics: Mobile IoT, Microservices Expo, Agile Computing, Wearables, Cloud Security, SDN Journal

Mobile IoT: Article

The Rapidly Changing Mobile Landscape

2013 predictions for the telco industry

The telecom industry will be challenged in the coming year as operators learn to adapt to the rapidly changing mobile landscape.

2012 was the year of mobile - big brands and Internet companies have just started to realize the potential impact that mobile communications can have on their engagement with consumers. I expect the mobile trend will continue in 2013, with SMS being the most rapidly changing application. Competition between operators and Internet companies will cause these two distinct worlds to work together in different ways. With this in mind, the following are my 2013 predictions for the telco industry.

We will witness a rebirth of SMS.
In times of crisis or low network connectivity, SMS remains the go-to communication mechanism. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, residents in the northeastern U.S. lost power for days, making the task of voting in the Presidential election a difficult undertaking. To help voters find the nearest polling station, Google set up a custom instance of an SMS-based locator for voters. When disaster strikes, SMS has a major advantage over voice, OTT services and email. This time next year, rather than focusing on "the death of SMS," we'll be discussing "the rebirth of SMS" thanks to its proven reliability and interoperability in times of crisis.

Google and Facebook will take over the world with SMS.
Picking up where they left off in 2012, the world's two biggest Internet players will demonstrate the power of SMS as they spread connectivity into developing countries. With the successful launch of Google Gmail SMS in Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya, users can manage their email via text message by activating a simple setting on their Gmail account. Google+ SMS also allows users to update their status via text message.

Similarly, Facebook is using SMS to extend their reach into developing countries. For example, "only" 5 percent of the population in Africa and 7 percent in Asia have access to Facebook. Meanwhile, Facebook maintains 45 percent market share in North America and 30 percent in Europe. With the mounting pressure from shareholders, these developing markets present a huge opportunity for the social giant to expand its footprint even further.

LTE will drive down the price of devices and access: a winning combination for consumers.
Today, consumers must look no further than their local BestBuy or Apple store to purchase an iPhone or SIM-free smartphone and obtain the data and access separately. LTE will only compound this trend, as mobile operators will increasingly be regarded as a data pipe. Consumers will continue to experience savings and access to new applications while operators will compete with each other on price, speed and better coverage. In 2013, we expect to see four distinct shifts with mobile operators:

  • Device sales will drop and margins on existing devices will narrow.
  • Operators will try to compensate for lower device sales by attracting users with "access" to their network.
  • To prevent further revenue loss, operators will focus on fostering existing billing relationships with customers.
  • Operators will be forced to "go all in" and invest heavily in LTE, thereby weeding out smaller carriers and positioning larger operators with deeper pockets on top.

RCS-e will fail.
The goal of the GSMA's RCS-e standard aims to help operators offer OTT services such as Instant Messaging, chat, video sharing and file transfer using their existing networks. However, there are four key hurdles that we believe will prevent the initiative from succeeding:

  • Late to Market: RCS-e will be hard pressed to compete with services already being used by existing standards and platforms.
  • Little to No Differentiation: While the likes of WhatsApp and Viber have already developed their services, it will be an uphill battle for RCS-e-based services such as Joyn to match what is out there already. There is no compelling argument to switch.
  • Lack of interoperability: RCS-e requires compatible handsets and network infrastructure. As neither of these are widespread, RCS-e will not work on an international scale for some time so it will be less attractive than the existing OTT offerings.
  • Operator-Dependent Business Model: RCS-e is competing against what are now OTT brand names, which offer their service for free or a minimal charge. The dependence on operators to create RCS-e interoperability is a huge hurdle, and will likely make it economically unattractive for subscribers before services have even launched.

Cross-industry alliances between Web 2.0 companies and carriers will be on the rise.
The lure of mobile for new media companies and vice versa will lead to a massive increase in partnerships with carriers. We have already witnessed a number of deals that indicate that this trend is already underway. Verizon now offers Skype mobile VoIP service for 3G smartphone customers while also offering mobile with video on its 4G LTE Mobile Broadband network. Messaging giant WhatsApp has also partnered with 3 Hong Kong for the provision of a WhatsApp-branded mobile data plan and roaming package. In addition, WhatsApp has struck another deal with Indian operator Reliance Communications to bring WhatsApp to college kids for free as part of its MyCollegePlan. Driven by the prospect of the "next big revenue-generator" in the form of mobile services and mobile advertising, in 2013 we will see many more alliances being forged across industries and through the carrier value chain.

Network instability will continue despite the promise of 4G.
Consumers have an insatiable appetite for newer, faster and more reliable access to technology. But the cost of shorter technology lifecycles is usually network instability. Shorter lifecycles mean less time to recoup the operators' investment, which means less testing and lower quality, all of which point to worsening service for consumers - a true dichotomy of supply and demand. While 2G maintained its rank as the industry standard for over a decade, 3G came and went and has already reached the end of its life cycle in half the time. Furthermore, the sheer volume of Internet-ready devices is contributing to the demise of the wireless data spectrum. As a result, smartphone users can expect to experience slower service and dropped connections.

With the emergence of free or low cost messaging services and OTT players, mobile operators have been forced to innovate, rather than rely on traditional voice and SMS services. As revenues are continually threatened, carriers will reevaluate their business models and search for new revenue-generating markets and partnerships. As a result of this innovation, 2013 will prove to be a favorable year for mobile users. Consumers will experience lower prices and new applications as operators and Internet companies compete for market share.

More Stories By Thorsten Trapp

Thorsten Trapp is Co-Founder and CTO of tyntec. He co-founded tyntec in 2002 together with Dr. Ralph Eric Kunz and developed the company's Mobile Messaging platform architecture. He is also responsible for tyntec's technical innovations and intellectual property.

A communications and software expert, Mr. Trapp founded his own IT services company in 1995. He then expanded his experience in the development and hosting of scalable internet server platforms to the conception and implementation of infrastructure for mobile data transport. Thorsten studied computer science and biology at the Technical University of Dortmund.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@CloudExpo Stories
22nd International Cloud Expo, taking place June 5-7, 2018, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and co-located with the 1st DXWorld Expo will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud ...
Bill Schmarzo, author of "Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business" and "Big Data MBA: Driving Business Strategies with Data Science," is responsible for setting the strategy and defining the Big Data service offerings and capabilities for EMC Global Services Big Data Practice. As the CTO for the Big Data Practice, he is responsible for working with organizations to help them identify where and how to start their big data journeys. He's written several white papers, is an avid blogge...
In past @ThingsExpo presentations, Joseph di Paolantonio has explored how various Internet of Things (IoT) and data management and analytics (DMA) solution spaces will come together as sensor analytics ecosystems. This year, in his session at @ThingsExpo, Joseph di Paolantonio from DataArchon, added the numerous Transportation areas, from autonomous vehicles to “Uber for containers.” While IoT data in any one area of Transportation will have a huge impact in that area, combining sensor analytic...
Charles Araujo is an industry analyst, internationally recognized authority on the Digital Enterprise and author of The Quantum Age of IT: Why Everything You Know About IT is About to Change. As Principal Analyst with Intellyx, he writes, speaks and advises organizations on how to navigate through this time of disruption. He is also the founder of The Institute for Digital Transformation and a sought after keynote speaker. He has been a regular contributor to both InformationWeek and CIO Insight...
Michael Maximilien, better known as max or Dr. Max, is a computer scientist with IBM. At IBM Research Triangle Park, he was a principal engineer for the worldwide industry point-of-sale standard: JavaPOS. At IBM Research, some highlights include pioneering research on semantic Web services, mashups, and cloud computing, and platform-as-a-service. He joined the IBM Cloud Labs in 2014 and works closely with Pivotal Inc., to help make the Cloud Found the best PaaS.
It is of utmost importance for the future success of WebRTC to ensure that interoperability is operational between web browsers and any WebRTC-compliant client. To be guaranteed as operational and effective, interoperability must be tested extensively by establishing WebRTC data and media connections between different web browsers running on different devices and operating systems. In his session at WebRTC Summit at @ThingsExpo, Dr. Alex Gouaillard, CEO and Founder of CoSMo Software, presented ...
@DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo, taking place November 12-13 in New York City, NY, is co-located with 22nd international CloudEXPO | first international DXWorldEXPO and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world.
In a world where the internet rules all, where 94% of business buyers conduct online research, and where e-commerce sales are poised to fall between $427 billion and $443 billion by the end of this year, we think it's safe to say that your website is a vital part of your business strategy. Whether you're a B2B company, a local business, or an e-commerce site, digital presence is key to maintain in your drive towards success. Digital Performance will take priority in 2018 for the following reason...
I think DevOps is now a rambunctious teenager - it's starting to get a mind of its own, wanting to get its own things but it still needs some adult supervision," explained Thomas Hooker, VP of marketing at CollabNet, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
What's the role of an IT self-service portal when you get to continuous delivery and Infrastructure as Code? This general session showed how to create the continuous delivery culture and eight accelerators for leading the change. Don Demcsak is a DevOps and Cloud Native Modernization Principal for Dell EMC based out of New Jersey. He is a former, long time, Microsoft Most Valuable Professional, specializing in building and architecting Application Delivery Pipelines for hybrid legacy, and cloud ...
In this presentation, you will learn first hand what works and what doesn't while architecting and deploying OpenStack. Some of the topics will include:- best practices for creating repeatable deployments of OpenStack- multi-site considerations- how to customize OpenStack to integrate with your existing systems and security best practices.
The “Digital Era” is forcing us to engage with new methods to build, operate and maintain applications. This transformation also implies an evolution to more and more intelligent applications to better engage with the customers, while creating significant market differentiators. In both cases, the cloud has become a key enabler to embrace this digital revolution. So, moving to the cloud is no longer the question; the new questions are HOW and WHEN. To make this equation even more complex, most ...
CloudEXPO New York 2018, colocated with DXWorldEXPO New York 2018 will be held November 11-13, 2018, in New York City and will bring together Cloud Computing, FinTech and Blockchain, Digital Transformation, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, AI, Machine Learning and WebRTC to one location.
DevOpsSummit New York 2018, colocated with CloudEXPO | DXWorldEXPO New York 2018 will be held November 11-13, 2018, in New York City. Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with the introduction of DXWorldEXPO within the program. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of bus...
"ZeroStack is a startup in Silicon Valley. We're solving a very interesting problem around bringing public cloud convenience with private cloud control for enterprises and mid-size companies," explained Kamesh Pemmaraju, VP of Product Management at ZeroStack, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
DXWorldEXPO | CloudEXPO are the world's most influential, independent events where Cloud Computing was coined and where technology buyers and vendors meet to experience and discuss the big picture of Digital Transformation and all of the strategies, tactics, and tools they need to realize their goals. Sponsors of DXWorldEXPO | CloudEXPO benefit from unmatched branding, profile building and lead generation opportunities.
In his keynote at 19th Cloud Expo, Sheng Liang, co-founder and CEO of Rancher Labs, discussed the technological advances and new business opportunities created by the rapid adoption of containers. With the success of Amazon Web Services (AWS) and various open source technologies used to build private clouds, cloud computing has become an essential component of IT strategy. However, users continue to face challenges in implementing clouds, as older technologies evolve and newer ones like Docker c...
"Evatronix provides design services to companies that need to integrate the IoT technology in their products but they don't necessarily have the expertise, knowledge and design team to do so," explained Adam Morawiec, VP of Business Development at Evatronix, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
"We're developing a software that is based on the cloud environment and we are providing those services to corporations and the general public," explained Seungmin Kim, CEO/CTO of SM Systems Inc., in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Enterprises are moving to the cloud faster than most of us in security expected. CIOs are going from 0 to 100 in cloud adoption and leaving security teams in the dust. Once cloud is part of an enterprise stack, it’s unclear who has responsibility for the protection of applications, services, and data. When cloud breaches occur, whether active compromise or a publicly accessible database, the blame must fall on both service providers and users. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Ben Johnson, C...
"MobiDev is a software development company and we do complex, custom software development for everybody from entrepreneurs to large enterprises," explained Alan Winters, U.S. Head of Business Development at MobiDev, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 21st Cloud Expo, held Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.